tv Cavuto Coast to Coast FOX Business January 6, 2017 12:00pm-2:01pm EST
sitting there eager and waiting for 20 k. he thinks it will be during his show. ashley: i can't see him smiling. i can't see him but feel him. stuart: there he is, looking so smug. neil: something going on with the dow? >> stuart: yes, sir. neil: a lot going on here. stuart i think is right when it comes to algorithms something set in stone, once we get close, sell orders kick in or something kicks in. right now 20 of dow 30 stocks are up right now. energy stocks not going along for the ride. that is a separate story. buoyed by employment report, kind of like sort of a perfect goldilocks report. not too strong, not too weak. continue wages of a respectable year for jobs growth. averaging 180,000 jobs per month. continuing trend wall street
seems to interpreting as kind of bets of all words. nothing too, too inflationary here. something that won't dramatically change the federal reserve's move to increase three times this year, possibly more. they seem to be okay with this so far. about 43 plus points away from 20,000. get read on the mood and what is going on the floor of the new york stock exchange with nicole petallides. hey, nicole. >> neil, traders are watching resistance on s&p 500, a level we butted up against on s&p 500. broke through that. we would be seeing new record closes for the s&p nasdaq, w all-time record high. that all of these indices, move togeth, and when you're butting up against those resistance less, but then you finally break through, that gives a sense of relief. finally break through that is a sense of relief big gives pace and moved to the upside and continues. doing that alone brings us closer. we are 42 points from doubt
20,000. we have been waiting for this since november. we saw a rally when trump was elected to be our president in december as well we got close and never able to break through. everybody said the new money in january would push us through. we have industrials, technology leading the way, the vicks, the fear index has pulled back today and energy, oil at 5413 a barrel so that can bring some optimism. overall we are watching doubt 20,000 opening the box of hats, superstitious, not allowed to open the box of hats until it happens. neil: as soon as they do that they are dangerous. the retailers are still not benefiting, part of this wave,
disappointing christmas and the latest sales numbers, one thing weighing on walmart. >> the only one to buck the trend with gap but sears, macy's, kohl's under pressure with weaker than expected holiday sales and outlooks that were weaker than expected. there were high hopes for the holiday season but these retailers had high sales. neil: another argument for the retailers and their performance and how it could help the market is this, the worst things look for them the dimmer the prospect for a lot of rate increaseds which might collectively get the dow past 20,000 because they like the notion of balancing the goldilocks bread where the economy is improving but it would mean a lot of rate increases. >> the truth is if you have an economy running so hard they are worried about inflation, the fed
and the fed minutes alluded to what we heard from their idea of donald trump's policies. not enough to hold back the inflation so let the economy be so great we saw wage growth in the latest jobs report we got today but let the policies kick in and the economy go so great that it warrants rate increases. overall they have been waiting for rate increases to bring us back to normal. they don't call them increases, just bring it back to normal. neil: we might be heading back to a ten. to the big board to focus on what is driving this. as you can see the dow is off of the green for issues that are advancing but interesting to note financial players like
jpmorgan chase and american express, we have seen goldman sachs continuing its heavy advance, the notion anything
financial will do well in this environment continuing where they left off. they could be the ringleaders in this parade and the ones that brought the consumer along, walmart and home depot will not but because financials, bashir price of how they are running up, can count for half of today's gains alone so the benefit with financials as rates go up, no brain winners and they and if it regardless in an environment like that, goldman sachs is the leader of that. jpmorgan chase, the idea they make money and can do well because their cd rates are somewhat behind, but it is like shooting fish in a barrel for the big
banks, doing quite well in an environment like this, less so when rates backup too
quickly. we will keep that dow ticker up throughout this broadcast to keep that aware and you aware what is going on and we will not take it down. in the meantime i want to bring in a key fellow watching this, in ohio, on market development a lot of people saying the trump rally continues because of growing optimism of big things. >> any time you throw out the tax code which is an academic growth impediment and regulations are an impediment to economic growth and obamacare which i believe is an impediment to growth as well and people see, investors see, business owners see, taxpayers see the we are going to create an
environment conducive to growth. this is the first president, barack obama the first president since world war ii not to have any year, not one single year of 3% or higher annual growth so that is how bad it has been. they see that is the optimism out there, new tax code, one that understands we need a fairer, simpler system on the personal and operant side, the ridiculous regulations need to go and one that says it is time to get rid of obamacare. that is what you are witnessing on wall street. neil: you pay attention to the dow or markets or colleagues when sprinting ahead like this, since mister trump's election or do you try not to get distracted? >> the fourth district of ohio is what we should be focused on. taxpayers and business owners, what are they telling us? what do they send us here to do, this is what we should be focused on, they feel optimism, that is a good thing for the country, not to do what we told
them to do when they gave us the privilege to serve. >> senator rand paul with me talking about the healthcare, he was saying you should go slow on this especially fixing it the way republicans are doing, and i want you to react to it. when you look at the numbers there is not a lot of wiggle room for republicans in the senate in this particular matter, 48 democrats, the traditional mass, it is down to 51. a couple other republicans could follow you and this doesn't happen. you say what? >> why don't we pass a budget that balances in the foreseeable future and fulfill obamacare, they are not mutually exclusive.
if they can't pass it they would have to negotiate with conservatives and instead of the establishment doing what they once conservatives would have a say so i talked to the house freedom caucus and said the same thing, let's band together and say enough is enough. neil: what do you make of that? simultaneous, repeal replace. >> makes sense. we should repeal and replace obamacare as quickly as possible. it shouldn't take more than this congress to do so. there is some talk we need such a long glide path the ramp-up or whatever you want to call it. we need some time but it better happened this congress because that is what the american people since is here to do. neil: you are part of that freedom caucus. when he made his pitch to you, where you persuaded to vote against the means by which republicans want to get this through. >> it is four parts to this thing, next week is the budget
to curve resolution to use reconciliation so you can avoid the 60 vote hurdle in the senate, the budget vote next week, reconciliation vote will happen next month or in the near future where we repeal obamacare and the replacement vote has to -- can't going reconciliation. as rand said that replacement vote should happen at the same time as the repeal vote and the effective date of both when obamacare is completely gone and we have a real market. neil: people who aren't steeped in washington maneuvers and all, and the better way to do this. your arguments for the time being. >> rand makes the argument that replacing it repealing at the same time makes sense. he is right, that does make sense and we are pushing and that direction and many members of the republican conference think that makes sense too but the effective date is sometime
later on, the idea you got to do it right and you need some ramp-up time so the market can in just -- a just, we have a bureaucratic driven model, we want a patient centered market-driven model and you need time to do that. when we repeal it it will be effective at some future date but it shouldn't be too far in the future, it should happen this congress. neil: looking at the dow, one thing that has come up, mark are getting ahead of themselves, too optimistic. a tall order of expectations on the part of investors and americans in the incoming administration and what republicans do and the house and the senate. do you ever feel the pressure that it is too much, you want to bring down expectations because right now they are sprinting ahead expecting you to lower taxes, get a lot of regulatory
hassle immediately? >> i don't think the american people feel there is pressure on members of congress. they are looking forward, elected us to make changes, let's get about doing that as quickly as possible in the right way as well. they understand it, that is my focus, there's pressure in your job to do it right, the families who want business back home. the market all the time. neil: i don't have a market on everything you guys do. given the healthcare issue and the fact that not everyone is on the same page to go about dismantling it do you think some disappointment is inevitable? >> i don't think so. we repeal it, every single bit of it, let's put in place a model that empowers families,
patients, doctors, communities, likely affordable care act which empowers this town. that is what people voted against. they want power back in their hands and never forget this fact, it all turned out to be false. i call it the tween 9 lines of obamacare, like a doctor keep your doctor, premiums go down, premiums go down $2500, emergency room visits will go down and the co-ops created 23 will be wonderful, 18 went bankrupt so there are tween 9 lies right there we were told, when we talk about getting rid of obamacare understand the context healthcare will be better and cost less when obamacare is gone. that is the premise i start from. let's just do the job we were sent to do. neil: 27 points from 20,000, the idea of big tax cuts everyone expect coming but i hear less talk of them given the fact we have been so focused on health
care. what can you tell us? >> we will get to that too. probably in the budget we do in april, we are seeing it focus on tax cuts but healthcare. neil: in the first hundred days it is not inevitable. >> i am not saying that. some people -- congress can focus on a couple issues too but the obamacare debate got kicked off when mike pence and president obama came to capitol hill and we had these competing meetings and competing press conferences, that was the kickoff, we are in the midst of the health care debate, but tax reform, that is something voters sent us to do and we were told we were going to do and we are going to do that as well. neil: i want to go back to the stock exchange but if we can, i would like our intrepid director to look at the dow 30, too fewer
red labeled stocks, those issues that are down, largely energy issues, cyclical issues more to the point but seeing a big advance led by the financials and they are bringing us within 24 points, these are nice round level so they get a little more attention than they normally would as record territory on broader averages, what are you seeing and hearing down there? >> financials do so well in 2016 and so much on the idea we would have curbing of regulation to make it a more business friendly environment once donald trump would take over so today interesting how these financials start week and you can see they gained momentum, goldman sachs up $3, jpmorgan, bank of america, we have seen jpmorgan hitting all-time highs, we had several names on the dow jones industrial average for 2016 with
gains of 30%. goldman sachs, chevron, caterpillar, and was terrible am of the worst ever january, byerly larry we were down 10% on the dow so we crawled out and built that momentum. the other thing i'm watching is how well we have done and getting closer. i have been waiting for this. i like this feeling, with here for dow 10,000, and the quick move to dow 11,000, that was the fastest amount for the jump, that 1000 points from dow 10,000 to dow 11,000 so the question is how many trading days did it take from 19,000 to 20,000s,
don't think it is 45 days and of all history, really put us in i think the second top spot, dow 14,000, 59 days and just getting from 18,000, remember 18,000, in december of 2014 so it took us a heck of a long time to get from dow 18,483 days to be precise to get to down 19,000 and we just took off and that is the idea. that is on the policies, on the lower tax, corporations and individuals, repatriation of money, and all the policies that they really hope are so great for the economy and translated to the stock market and getting closer and closer. neil: we are 33 points from
20,000, fixation on the dow 30 in tune, 30,000 publicly traded companies on the s&p 500. on those alone, the temperature of american capitalism but the dow 30 focuses, it is a microcosm in the s&p 500. with oil and energy not doing well, the signs we see today. the retail and financial issues and cyclical issues, tends to indicate, society, and this is what we pushed, really big, and all of those fears, you might hear about oil and how much it
has slipped here but it used to lead private rallies and it is not consequential to those rallies. when oil would think the markets would sink even with the nominal game in oil prices today, oil issues themselves are not doing that well despite the industry expected to benefit under president trump. charlie gasparino joining us with 27 points away from 20,000 but what are you hearing? >> not great but not bad plus the promise of tremendous stimulus which is what he is doing, the question is the sustained 20,000 like we have been saying the past couple days, imperfect indicators of the future.
and some stimulus, decent stimulus, there is concern among investors about trade war, tariffs will be negative for the market and whether he does so much spending stimulus between keeping good parts of obamacare and infrastructure that you have higher deficits and interest rates that would snuff out a rally, that is what the market is playing with but the overriding concern and why there is a good shot hitting 20,000, you never know, might back off or dip into it off of its highs, but the economy right now even without the trump stimulus effect of lower taxes, decent settings and the stimulus will put it over the top. neil: let me ask about that was i have a crackpot theory. the bad news out of macy's, the
unique problems, drag down the retail sector, walmart and a host of others, justified or not, they stand outside but by and large they are reading into that, consumer could be picked up a little bit, don't think that appreciate the magnitude of what amazon.com has done in the likes but having said that do you think that was welcome news, no one worries about the economy going bonkers, too many rate increases. >> it is hard, the market is 1 million different indicators all at once. the old line retailers, investors talk about this all day, they now have to compete with amazon and old economy will go by the wayside happening fast. there will be an impact of that, whether that is an indicator of consumer confidence or an indicator of the way people do
business in retail i don't go to the stores, don't have to go to macy's which you can order a lot of stuff online, that is taking -- not an indicator. neil: this market has resisted normal hiccup points where the federal reserve will raise interest rates, three times this year, it could live with that even more but there is a retail report like we have gotten out of some to give the argument a little bit of pause and the federal reserve won't go crazy this year and this is the perfect environment on top of the jobs report that isn't fantastic but not awful. >> pricing a lot of things, consumer confidence. it is hard to look at a pure retailer and say that is the indication of consumer confidence because people buy stuff online through amazon,
that is one out of it, what you see in the market today. the other part of it, market tries to place in the future, the future, donald trump does things like cut taxes, watches pentagon infrastructure, cuts regulation the future for the markets will be very good and probably really good for the economy and that is what the stock market is saying. the question is one of the problems donald has is his economic policy, it is not pure reagan economic policy. is not for free trade at least doesn't articulate that he is for free trade, he is for good spending programs on infrastructure, doesn't get the bank for the buck like people go to work and spend, not an official way of putting people back to work in the market at some point will price that in too and it has been praising and hovering around out 20,000 for how many weeks now, keeps trading up to it and off of it,
that is one of the worries of the market right now. other priorities and whether they conflict with supply-side priorities and we don't know. neil: i don't want you to wandered too -- the big catalyst today doing the math in my own head which is always dangerous, disproportionately weighted in goldman sachs expenses for these days it is already up to $244 and without those guys these games would not be nearly as dramatic. i am throwing in jpmorgan chase. do you buy that this has been a financial driven rally, good, bad, what? >> absolutely and that is not uncommon when you see the dow
move up or down and a few stocks are making that significant move caused the type of movement we are seeing but if you look at the way we rallied over the last six weeks, eight weeks, longer sessions than that financials helped us get to where we are. the movent and intere rates, once the election was over with they were anticipating bank regulation changing for the better in some of these banks, and that was helped overall. lauren: 1 neil: you know the mechanics of how traders go and i swear, stuart varney touched on it, so orders tend to kick in, there is a level they kick in, 20,000 in this sector, sell the aggregate and that is a tough sort of a level to get around.
is that true? >> absolutely, you can take algorithms out of it. the trading mentality when you look at level on a technical level, the upside and downside, you see something that tries to break through a level, doesn't get through twice because people out there feel that level means a lot more muscle, a lot more muscle behind it to get through so it is tough for us to get to this 20,000 number and it will continue to be tough but that doesn't mean the feeling can't be broken. you look at the numbers we saw and jobs numbers that weren't bad the economic data has been good. people are waiting to get through the inauguration. all the factors, we start earning season next week, that will help too. all these factors help moved to this level but people do try to take these individual levels on the downside. neil: we had the best -- the
last jobs report, 156,000 employment rate, 180,000 jobs averaging every single month, down from last year which was down from the year prior but still a pretty good trend and that is why i was hearing a number of the boroughs and the number of economists friendly to the administration say this is the obama rally, closing days of the obama rally, then i talked to trump loyalists who tell me this surge, the big one started post his election. what is it to your? >> that is the end of the obama administration can i say that because we have seen this pattern over time. at the end of 2015 the fed said they would be data dependent and watch big heavy numbers to raise interest rates. 2016 we saw our economy get better, we saw economic data get better and as the administration was winding down the fed did as
much as they could to make these numbers look pretty. neil: where would we be without the fed? if the fed wasn't keeping rates as low as they did, 0%, where would we be? >> we needed that help, there is no debate that that crutch we had definitely helped us get through 2008-2009 and 2010. the fed did what they had to do. we seen this in the united states and europe with different economic stimulus packages. neil: not a left or right view because sometimes i think presidents of either party take credit. it happens under your watch, you are going to get the blame if it is not. in this case how much a roll the federal reserve played, some interpret this as a green light for legislative stimulus on the part of congress.
for any type of stimulus when i think the biggest and most effective stimulus can usually be done through the federal reserve. >> let's not kid ourselves, but fed for a long time had one item on their agenda, get this economy going, continue to add stimulus to our economy, grow jobs and get people feeling comfortable about our economy. they seem to have accomplished that but we have to see how the economy is going to run in this new world, new administration, interest rates moving higher. are we strong enough to stand on our own. we have seen when the fed did raise rates, small and along period of time since the last one the market shrugged that off, willing to accept the new world we are going to live in. neil: happy new year, i that with the dow flirting close, in record territory but close to dow 20,000. marsha blackburn joining us, the vice chair, republican from
tennessee, congresswoman, is this a trump rally ran obama rally? >> i think it is goodbye obama and hello trump rally. there's a lot of enthusiasm, a lot of optimism with the american people right now and when you look at consumer economics as you were talking earlier, people feel better they spend a little bit more and even patterns are changing how people are choosing to spend their money what you are seeing is the confidence that better days are returning and small business manufacturing is going to come back and i think that is something important to people. neil: i was asking your colleagues earlier about the markets and whether to pay attention. i'm sure you are not oblivious to them but they are getting pretty frothy and some interpreted that as too frothy
as we get 20 points away. you ever worry the market i getting ahead of themselves you will deliver these goods like tomorrow? >> we always have concern about managing the expectations of the american people with how quickly we are able to accomplish the things we are setting out to do whether it is tax reform or obamacare repeal, with rules and regulations through congressional review and the president-elect sworn in being able to rescind some of the executive orders, we are always concerned about expectations and i have to tell you one of the things we feel is our job is to get out here and create the environment for jobs growth to take place and that requires less regulation. less litigation, less taxation
so that you see innovation in job creation the american people are wanting to see. we are going to be diligent and we hope you continue to see economic growth. we know people are very hopeful. i was talking with a lady in my district yesterday and she was reworking of the fund allocations in her retirement fund and she said for the first time i will look at common stocks because of what is happening in the stock market so i think there is an enthusiasm and exuberance in the american consumer. we've not seen that in obama. neil: the reason we are going big on the dow is it is close to the trading levels we have seen, 16 points from dow 20,000, averaging 30 stocks, not always the same stocks, change it and
try to repeat and recalibrate that they always keep in mind folks at dow jones doing this to reflect the american economy and diverse structure used to be dominated in smokestack industries and chemical concerns, more technology and financial but always adjusted but that adjustment and percentages point to a continued advance, and even thousand points tuesday november 22nd, the fastest 1000 point run for the dow ever and the higher you go the smaller percentageds so easier on paper to do but this has been a psychological barrier to overcome. a lot was built on expectations that regulations go down, taxes go down, problems wall street and businesses have had with the healthcare law go down but could
lead to lowered expectations if you don't deliver on any one of those things lose do you ever post to your colleagues let's keep it real? >> we are doing a reality check to say what is possible, what is in the realm of the possible and how far can we push an idea forward and as we work and plan our work for committees and subcommittees we think about that. where can we get agreement with democrats? where can we get agreement with the senate so we can move the registration to the president's desk. neil: it is important this not be a one party operation, you work with democrats and that will be encouraging, if you can stay there i want to bring charlie gasparino into this, we are six points away from dow 20,000 and participating in this, a financial driven rally, what do you make of that?
charles: it is narrow, not everybody. why financial companies need less regulations, what trump is promising. higher interest rates on the short end which means feds will raise interest rates, take the short end, good for bank earnings because what they do is before they pay you more on your checking account, there is a huge lag the bank earnings go up with said rate increases and the economy will improve meaning more than a rate increase over the next year. >> when you look at bonds but if donald trump's spending plans are very costly and he blows the deficit out, watch the 10 year bond, the yield on the 10 year starts going up spiking 3%.
neil: we are just a couple points away, interest rates going up are not necessarily in most market rallies. charles: if they go up because of deficit spending, snuffing out the rally, could hurt the economy. warner: the two points away i should stress this is a good size rally and impressive rally, and november 22nd wasn't that long ago but we should stress this has been driven largely by financials, disproportionately so. do you think goldman sachs sees a drive in value but that is too much too fast. charles: this is a trump rally, give him credit, this is obama leaving which markets like. neil: has done pretty well under president obama.
charles: they went from 6 after they went down dramatically they went from 6 to wherever we are to say 18. on fed stimulus, not a great economy and low inflation but this is a trump rally saying we are going to go beyond that because he will unleash capitalist forces was the negative part about trump, investors should know this, engaging in a trade war, will take the market down. >> most of the issues where the big multinationals, could be waived by such a development. charles: look at the call buying, options to sentiment, and and people are betting against it. charles: start selling on the back. before there is a negative
sentiment. neil: gerri willis, don't move anywhere, we are two points away, hard to say how this goes, amazing graphics to go. stuart varney has been going with this nonstop it wouldn't it be ironic if it doesn't happen and i just go -- whatever. you are looking at this. what are you feeling? >> what do you think happens with 20,000? headlines are in the newspapers, everywhere in the media. they start getting interested again and that is less to the market. a lot of things trump could do wrong or upset the markets in some way whether it is a trade war or he disappoints on growing jobs. that could be bad too but individual investors will be
incentivized when they see 20,000, to them it is a landmark, a turning point. neil: we know individual participation has picked up a little bit, but nothing like the bull market rallies we saw under bill clinton ronald reagan. it was under bill clinton the mutual fund boomed, and the internet was in earnest but do you see anything like that that would continue to propel these markets higher? >> i am saying exactly, individual investors, we have been waiting for them to get incentivized for a long time, we have been waiting forever for individuals to say i want to invest in individual stocks again instead of end and because that is what people are doing. is about sexier to invest in individual names, a lot more fun and this is the kind of thing coupled with good news on the economic front, jobs grow. the economy expands. we start seeing headlines, individual investors will get back into the marketplace and they usually get in at the wrong
time. charles: they should wait. something else, trump's economic policies, conflicting economic policies, great road stuff but a lot of spending, obamacare, he wants to keep the good part which is costly and get rid of the bad parts and trade stuff which if you are an individual investor you -- i would wait forward, see what comes out and decide. neil: the highly reached a few minutes ago was a point and three quarters away from 20,000. nicole pedallides, you are on the floor of the stock exchange though when i hear sporadically as i do, shouting or yelling going on, what are they shouting or applauding? pizza delivery has coming or what? >> they are not shouting or
applauding about pizza delivery. this is the most photographed trader on the floor. some -- i hear charlie gasparino laughing. i hear you guys -- you got to eat, you got to trade, you got to eat, do both at the same time but we are on in the graham live on cavuto coast-to-coast trying to get down 20,000 out to the world, we are 6 points away, down 20,000 had is in my hands but not allowed to show it to you and not about to put it on. 9 points away. neil: when you talk to people do they make a big deal of nice round numbers, 20,000 has an impact? we remember dow 1000. here is a reminder, the first,
didn't effectively close over to 1982. charles: pool markets are crazy, keep your money in the market over the long-term you go to a lot of downside. i would say this. it is a number. we like to talk about numbers to lunch into a discussion but it is just a number. if you are the average retail investor, markets in the short term the weight to see the donald trump economic policy, it is a way to tax-cut, regulation cuts, a way to trade nonsense, and a wall plus an infrastructure project that will balloon the budget deficit and cause long-term interest rates that hurriedly markets? you got to weigh these things, not something to jump in the market and say down 20,000, i am going to buy a bunch of stocks because that is a sucker's move.
neil: when you are seeing something like this the phone might be ringing a little more and getting more texts from folks, what are they asking about? >> you got to believe, a lot of people are not believers until recently, it pushes people over the edge. a lot of money is not in the market in the last couple months. there was a big amount of cash pulled out. they can come into play. this is another psychological boost. neil: let's cross the number and be teased here. does it make a difference in your life. >> i followed the s&p. neil: does it make any difference? >> definitely. it absolutely does. i got my hat and shoes and ready to go. neil: what are you worried about? a number of politicians, heady
expectations in the new congress and new president coming in, do you worry about it being too much? >> the plan has to be implemented, mice and men. it has to be executed. we bought into this idea that good days are going to come but there are going to be bumps in the road but the market hasn't foreseen that, gold and bonds have gone straight down but reality coming into play, the stock market has a lot more upside. you give back to the s&p, 2400 is a technical target from earlier this summer so we have a lot more to go before making a new high in the s&p, everything positive now. neil: that is a gauge of market sentiment or lack of fear in this case.
>> exactly. it is a positive because we have been making new highs, but not new lows, more downside in the mix and more upside in the s&p and the market in general but in 2007 the low was below 10, just because of the bubble doesn't mean it can't go lower and doesn't mean the stock market can't go higher. charles: there is an algorithm when this gets close to 20 k. it is amazing. neil: what were you saying? >> the longer it takes to get to a specific point the more sustained that move could be. we are on a 250 point selloff, on top of 20,000 looking at 20,250 as the first target and people can jump on board. neil: interesting when you think about it when you get to 20,000 this is the ultimate tease here but the releasing 20,000, hard to sell. neil: like a burlesque show, they don't actually show you
anything but they tease you a lot. as opposed to other things. >> last time i talked to neil i said this has to do with him coming back. if you look at the market rally. the corollary -- there is a corollary and i am not going to call this a trump bump. i will call it an energy bum, their opec rally. if you look at the rally of $22 in november coinciding with the market. neil: that usually flies in the face of conventional wisdom but so too the higher rate. if you think of housing booms and more memorable market rallies occurred at a time energy prices are going up and interest rates going up. >> people factor in the future of inflation.
>> transportation average bubble, there is the dow theory that as stuff that moves the stuff that goes, something about all the stuff being removed and it confirms what is going on here. >> i agree. >> if you think of the energy stocks they have been the drag on the market, holding the market back, they play ball, the bull market really took off and to think about the banks the banks benefited from energy stocks, they were worried about bankruptcies and exposure, now the exposure is gone and everybody benefits. >> if you are an individual investor you got to be careful about the market. neil: what would you have told them election night? charles: if you had this, i said this on your show. one thing i always said, if he does when there will be a
republican house and senate and any chance i got if the market was really scared of donald trump because of progrowth policies. now a lot of that is factored into the market, him winning the initial burst of energy, now to see what he produces and will he get a 50% corporate tax rate or will it go to 25%, will he do all sorts of crazy spending programs that could hurt the budget or will he be more modest? neil: a life alone apart from politics and people were surprised the market did as well as it did under bill clinton or barack obama. you could make the point that others have the role of the fed and i am just saying markets have a life of their own and if they go suddenly south markets -- markets don't care. markets don't care if you are republican or democrat. neil: they are not riddled blue
or green. >> barack obama had the misfortune of fortune of coming in it having a fed that was very willing to -- neil: not accommodating. >> business policies we wouldn't have had this rally so it is relative. neil: where would he be without the federal reserve, always trying to say curb it this way under democrat or republican or whatever, democrats like to point out and statistically they are right that markets do better under their watch. and unusual anomaly with barack obama coming in eight years ago putting it mildly, how do you make it? >> i don't think politics play into it. i'm not in the earthquake prediction business or when the next shark bite will be. i am about market price action. it has been nothing but
positive. neil: it is trading 17 times earnings. the economy improves and the multiples look better in the market doesn't look so pricey. where do you stand? >> it is priced in. from my standpoint i'm an eternal optimist and i am concerned about the training standpoint, hard to be a buyer at these levels. these opportunities -- in the long run. >> trading every day, if you are the average investor policy doesn't matter, president obama -- neil: a young person comes up to you and says i want to get into this market and don't need the money right away, 5 or 10 years. charles: watch the policy. neil: a tweet in your time
horizon goes through the next president. >> if you are going to buy i believe in long-term investing you don't buy until you see donald trump's colors. we knew what we had under obama, antibusiness, but extremely accommodating on interest rates, they printed money like no tomorrow. hard not to buy stocks in that environment. here we have a different dynamic, some rate increases, printing of money, we will have three market policies coming out of this new administration, where you have to wait is where donald trump will emerge, will it be the free market guy on the campaign trail or the guy that engages in some degree of protectionism and keynesian spending that doesn't work
because of budget deficits? >> back to execution, one thing i got to say is the rate hikes, no choice between stocks and treasuries even if they raise rates three times, nowhere close to yield on the s&p, on top of the appreciation, no comparison. money will go into stocks in this environment. >> the tweet in your goes up 3%. >> there is an issue with that. we don't know how much donald trump will spend or obamacare keeping the good parts, these are huge questions as we hover near 20,000. neil: once he got the subject of me leaving to this rally i wasn't interested in what he had to say. >> you and oil.
neil: you stay there and gerri willis with us and scott martin and charles payne as well. talk about a party. charles payne you arrived here, you were talking not long ago, a while ago, about young people and looking at a market like this and not being so fixated on timing. charlie gasparino saying there is no buying at this level. young people come to you all the time curious about this market. what do you tell them? charles: you got to own it. charles: a nice run up. i try to preach only great american companies as opposed to, quote, the market. own great american companies. i tell the same story, a guide either year and a half ago, never had a job that paid more than minimum wage, $2 million to
a library, all he ever did was buy stocks, that is all he ever did for 40 years is all he ever did, he had no money, the guy was cheap, he would park three blocks away so he wouldn't use a parking meter. he watched through a window at a bar. if you look at his portfolio one of the things in common, the top ten stocks almost over 100-year-old companies because if companies are around 100 years, there is a 90% chance it will be around the next hundred years. the idea of picking tops and bottoms is crazy. people -- charles: he did not have a family. people's time horizon, you say 40 years i agree, you got the stomach like that, a 5 year bear market, enough money. charles: when was the last time we had a bear market? >> i don't know. >> when was the last time we had a bear market? charles: that was a sideways
market but individual names even in a 70s you had a while. >> the saying people have families and stuff. >> 90% of what he is saying, my own point. charles: you were telling me like 9 person but he is bigger than me. >> you are darker. charles: you look good. real quick. >> what charlie is saying is the way the financial talk about the market too, risk gone, what is a greater risk than not having money when you get old. if you stick them in under your pillow it loses purchasing. you find great stocks and owns them.
charles: i am not as brilliant as you. the dow and the s&p. >> you know china, trump is not going to get in a pissing match with china, excuse the language. he gets in this thing with china and apple shares go down dramatically. i don't think i agree with you 90% of the time but one thing at these levels investors should take a deep breath and see the fiscal policy that comes out. charles: distinguishing the average versus stocks. what i tell people is you are never going to buy on the bottom, you could have got something cheaper or sold it higher but you stick with something for the long term without using the ten your time horizon. charles: let's flashback to last january. the worst start to market in history. the first two weeks where the worst two weeks in history and we went across the board higher.
charles: i tell people not to wait. if someone doesn't have the nerve or confidence to buy markets going up they are not going to do that. and they are not going to buy a market did this is an easy that right now to wait. you know the market will sell off after the inauguration. it did with obama. a massive amount and sells afterward to digest the policy and i am telling you that is what will happen here. they single-handedly tipped in his direction is unfair to him. we'll see how the direction goes. dow within 20,000.
a third after point. alan knuckman at cme. scott martin joins us on the phone, besides these illustrious folks. scott martin, another level, if we cross it today, 20,000, the smaller the next 1000 point leap would be only 5% to get to 21,000. what do you make of all of this? >> look how fast, neil, we captured this last 1500, 2,000 points since the election. you asked charlie a funny question. what did you tell people on november 9th, when the s&p plummeted over 100 points overnight. that is the beauty of what charles is saying. stocks, u.s. stocks, my friends, are postively sloped. may go up over time. so when you have opportunities like november 9th in the morning, when you have opportunities like january and february back in 2016, you take those opportunity to layer up your portfolio.
at these heights, yes, it is unnerving at the tall heights where stocks are more expensive than they have been recently. they're expensive for a reason. they're looking forward to policies and procedures of a donald trump administration versus what we had to deal with in the last eight years. >> scott, this is not on opportunity. that was an opportunity. everybody can see republican congress and donald trump buy on the dip. markets go down because they were skiddish about him. you know what they will deliver. that is factored in. right now there are question marks. you say this is opportunity to buy now? >> i do, charlie. money has to go somewhere. cash is paying zero. interest rates going up. bond prices are going down. stocks are getting assets where the appreciation lie. >> buy in february when you you know where he is going with the economy. do it in february. you have nothing to lose.
neil: by the way for those just tuning in here, as we get to the top of the hour, dow jones industrials in and out of all-time highs, a third after point, a third of a point of 20,000. making a of run of it. some saye ages barack obama rally or donald trump postelection rally. this is not red or bluish issue. at corner of wall and broad, if they can make money under a communist they will be happy to do that. charles payne and his friends. they're that sacrilegious. since the trump election a lot of key sectors have moved smartly. charles payne, among them the financial sector up 20%. again a big catalyst today. when you see something that disproportionate to other factors, not that it might not be justified, doesn't get me wrong, does it worry you? >> not really. you have to stretch it out to see how they were doing prior to that. financial were actually taking it on the chin despite bailout
from federal reserve, which bailed them out more than main street. you bring up the point when it comes to indices particularly the dow. nothing weighs heavier on the dow than goldman sachs. goldman sachs is 5% of the dow. when that moves up, es poe nextly it takes the dow significantly higher. it is somewhat skewed. neil: just interesting little side note, goldman sachs alone accounts for 20% of this gain. >> right. neil: go ahead. >> there you go. >> they exactly look to main street either. neil: by the way, it will be a goldman sachs dominated cabinet. that is whole separate issue. gerri willis is with us right now. gerri what do you think. >> listen, to your point about financials leading right now, the the gain we saw at end of the year it was technology. that was four horsemen. that was narrow move. neil: horsemen can change. >> you're starting to see things that are broader. that is a great reason to buy
the market. do you buy the dow? no, you don't just buy 30 stocks. buy the market. neil: a lot of people are not as smart as charles. they take the fallback, i will invest in an average or these days they buy etfs if they like technology or banking sector, a good escape route, right? >> right. you can buy indexes that represent the entire marketplace, right? neil: right. >> this is good excuse to start looking at sectors. neil: what do you tell young people? >> buy. all the time. they have 40 years. neil: buy all the time. >> today and february. >> they have 40 years to wait it out. neil: i don't think they believe in dollar-cost averaging. same amount every six months. >> if you buy individual stocks with good different -- dividends. if you tell me apple is riding high a year from now, you better be able to predict donald trump's fiscal policies. you have.
neil: you're fixated on here and now and donald trump. these guys are going well into the future. >> well, here's the problem, do people with families that have modest means, do they have the stomach and wherewithal to with stand hugedown markets? >> charles is saying they should. >> first of all they have the wherewithal but they don't trust their with all. the family that eats at cracker barrel, has high cholesterol. >> doesn't own the stock, doesn't understand they know more than anybody in ivory towers in wall street but they have been told -- neil: that is very good point. >> or buys nike shoes or apple computers. >> you make it sound like the companies keep going up. >> they don't keep going up. that is to your point i have a lot of people, my business is up huge since the election, through the roof. some people will have missed entire rally and buy one stock. neil: remind me next time we're out at applebee's.
>> to your point, slightest sign of adversity, a couple hiccups and sell. the average person can't handle the market. they take losses. >> you and i made this point throughout the obama years. i was working here with you for most of them is that there was, a perception among individual investors because obama was such a quasi-socialist, he was so bad, he would be horrible for the markets. so many people did not understand the notion when the fed prints money, not just keeps interest rates low, that automatically will be good for the stock market and people were not buying. i understand that i'm all for you. i'm not for betting against trends. i'm just telling people you have to weigh the policy the policy of obama-nomics was, yes, he was anti-capitalist but printing money like crazy. you buy a market. we don't know exactly what this policy will be. >> there was another aspect to the obama rally, where we started from. >> six. >> the stock market was cut in half. literally cut in half. neil: you can only go up.
>> in 1800s there were four panics. they were so devastating, that they did not call them panics. call them depression. then we got the great depression. when you get the things they're rare and come around, they're so devastating if you have the wherewithal and to your point, the guts, you can make a lot of money. >> you have to look at the policy. fed for the markets bailed out the banks. qe bailed out banks. we're talking about bank stocks. neil: talking about quantitative easing, buying a lot of treasury notes. >> where do you buy them from? the banks and replenish their balance sheets. that means bank stocks go up. >> market has been sideways for two years. >> that's true. neil: i don't want to interrupt you, but i am. this is formal electoral college vote where vice president joe biden makes the election official. the man whose policies has been heralded behind today's rally we hope given our graphics and fancmusic to 20,000, it is
going to be certifd momentarily. you know the drill here. he goes through reading the states and then the final electoral tally. there are a number of folks trying to protest this final move here, barring any surprises, that will be dispensed with. donald trump will be on his way to being formally inaugurated two weeks from this day. alan knuckman at cme. i hope you're still there. alan, if there are any surprises or something happens, i imagine these markets would suddenly reverse because that was not a factor they envisioned but what do you think? >> yeah. markets don't like uncertainty the look at most uncertain president-elect that we've ever had in history. that has been, you know, haven't cared so far. who knows at this point. i see more uncertainty in the next administration than i've seen last eight years but markets don't care. gold market until recently didn't care. bond market until recently didn't care. there is optimism. neil: markets can be wrong.
>> rarely. neil: charles raises an interesting point a year ago we were tanking in the first two weeks, and telegraphing all this sort of trouble in the moment markets, they're volatile. just human nature, right? so are markets giving us a false signal here? >> i don't think so. i think the overall trend is still very strong and you got to look at historical trend. we periodically get dips. what happens unfortunately, people have the wrong psychology and wrong approach. they sell when they should be buying and buy when they should be selling. it is about a mind-set and risk and rewarded. there is a lot of components to it. but people need to understand themselves first and their money mentality and better understand how to play the markets because the fear factor is so heavy with these news, everybody gathers so much information and news that affects their thought process. neil: you're right about that. speaking of which, what you're
looking on the the left-hand sif the screen, congress convening to certify the election results. as it stands donald trump had 304 electoral votes. two texas electors bolted. one voted for john kasich ohio governor and one for ron paul. you need 270 to be president of the united states. hillary clinton with 227 electoral votes. this will certify all of that. there is a move afoot right now, if you want to protest this you have to get a sympathetic senator to do that. you might recall in 2001 when al gore was the vice president, a host of democrats had petitioned the results to say they were unfair and had urged then sitting vice president to recognize that protest and al gore was in the very tough position of saying, i can not recognize that order. you do not have supporting senator. your request is denied. he had to officially then state,
that the man he had beaten in the popular vote had beaten him in the electoral vote, and as a result he would not be next president of the united states. that is then. this is now. this is all really kind of perfunctory. unless something dramatic happens and changes, donald trump is assured of getting 304 electoral votes. let's isen in. >> regular in form and authentic. it appears therefore that donald j. trump of the state of new york received nine votes for president and michael r. pence of the state of indiana received nine votes for vice president. neil: they're literally going state by state. i will save you that. they will get the total, once donald trump gets over 270, then he is assured the presidency without any ifs, ands or buts. as we're watching this go through, imagine something we're not expecting happens, the market tanked the night it looked like he was winning
reversed that, could start tanking when it looks like a sure thing they were protesting initially happened? >> yeah. that would be interesting. i'm waiting for whoopi goldberg to come in with camouflage on at any moment now. alan said something i found intriguing about uncertainty with this president. there is tremendous amount of certainty what he wants to today. yesterday's selloff, as i watched market almost tick for tick, only thing that can hurt donald trump and economy/stock market is the gop. yesterday during that hearing you had members of his own party taking shots at him. also members of his own party waffling how to repeal and replace obamacare. i think that had more to do with it. oil came out, inventory numbers, whatever, the market fell but oil ended up higher for the day. only uncertainty out there in my
mind the biggest risk is the gop not getting completely behind donald trump. >> how can they get behind, let's be clear here, how will they get behind a 500 billion to trillion dollar infrastructure spending plan, tax cut and keeping good parts of obamacare? that is fiscally insane. >> they will get behind it -- neil: with the exception of rand paul and health care they're getting behind it. >> are they behind the infrastructure thing? my guess what reality meets here, there will be reality with mitch mcconnell and paul ryan, that they will say -- neil: mitch mcconnell senate leader is against the whole infrastructure thing. >> no infrastructure. they're going to say, you really want to do that? we'll take the corporate tax rate, unless we want huge deficits and huge interest rate spikes we'll take the corporate tax rate not down to 15 but 25. neil: that would be set up for disappointment, gerri. >> some elements are. tax policy itself works against itself increases debt and deficit. >> initially. initially. >> even most conservative think
tanks his tax policy is problematic. small tweaks wouldn't necessarily have to be made, absolutely, but if he can cut corporate taxes that would go a long way. neil: interesting, jim jordan was on with me at beginning of the broadcast, house freedom caucus, maybe it accidentally slipped, i don't hear much stalk about the big tax cuts. no, we have tax plan in april. april, that is past the first 100 days. >> interesting. neil: so i'm wondering if it was freudian slip or a sign that republicans might be delaying or scaling back what everyone is going anticipated would be a big tax cut boom? >> can you believe the first thing they talked about was the ethics commission. neil: disaster. >> that was a big misstep. neil: maybe a misstep on the health care thing. >> i hope not. >> listen, there is only so much spending you can do. donald, quote, unquote, likes to build. he likes to say that. he wants to do a obama infrastructure plan.
neil: when he is president you call him donald? >> "the donald." mr. donald president. >> sir. neil: sir. >> i know him too well. i should call him, to his face i would obviously call him mr. president. i'm just saying there is reality that is going to be met in congress about -- neil: you might be right. trent lott, former republican senate leader and get his sense of this. trent lott, one of the things you always hear, washington is the place where campaign dreams die. where all of a sudden becomes much harder to put in action the stuff you campaign for on the stump. other found ways to get around that and push that and get what they want. ronald reagan comes to mind. franklin roosevelt comes to mind. do you worry the markets fixated on as the dow teases 20,000, are ahead of themselves. the expectations of this new republican congress and new president, whose electoral votes are about to be certified are extreme? >> well, what i would say about
this, rather than expectations is a vision. i think it is very important in leadership, therefore the president of the united states to have a vision where he wants to go. he has got a lot of big ideas and the people need that. i think there is a great opportunity here to do a lot of things that need to be done. is it a big order? yes. the senate has to work on confirmations. they have to get rid of a lot of regulations that obama has put in place that is stifling business and creation of jobs. they need to repeal and replace obamacare but by the way, that is not going to be done in the first 100 days. they will have repeal vote but the bridge to the future and the replace will take more time. that will take a couple years. neil: that bothers people like rand paul, senator. he was with me yesterday saying, why can't we do both at same time? this budget mechanism we're using to try to speed the repeal process up is going to be part of something makes our deficit worse and debt worse. you say what? >> i do worry about the deficits but remember there is a lot of
tax policy in that obamacare and they have got some choices they will have to make about how they use those or when they use them. as a matter of fact, obamacare has got some money already been collected in taxes that hadn't been expended. i want to jump beyond that. if i had my choice, do your tax bill first because that will give the jolt to the economy, start creating jobs. then go to the repeal of obamacare. neil: they didn't do that. that they didn't do that stumbling out of the gates to gerri willis's point. this health care thing. you might be right. i don't know procedures things are pushed to become -- >> they're complicated. neil: i understand that. here is not what is complicated. americans reacting to republican congress not getting what they wanted done or as quickly as they wanted it done. does that come back to bite them? >> they will get a lot of it done. you have to deal with reality, takes time in the senate because of rules. in this year, in fact the next
very few months, they are going to repeal obamacare. they will repeal a lot of ridiculous regulations. they are going to pass a tax bill. they will go to a infrastructure bill, i hope, by the way badly-needed but come up with a way to pay for it. it may not be able to be as big as the president has envisioned. do as much as you can. nobody disagrees infrastructure in america is deteriorating. we're not just talking highways and bridges. we're talking water and sewer. when is the last time we built a new airport? infrastructure needs addressing in america. i always thought that was a republican thing? because you're creating something and creating jobs instead of paying people not to work. they need to do that and they're going to deal with immigration. if you get to end of this year and they have done repeal of obamacare, replaced it. had tax cuts, they have done infrastructure and they have done immigration reform as well as regular appropriations bills, american people will be very pleased what they see. it's a great opportunity.
neil: don't want to interrupt, getting unconfirmed reports of shots fired at fort lauderdale airport between terminals two and three. they have emptied out those terminals for the better part of valor and safety of passengers and those just visiting and working at the terminal. shots fired at fort lauderdale airport. that is all we can tell you. to be safe they emptied out the terminals. doesn't look like entire airport. we're keeping eye on that. keeping eye on a washington where they're voting to certify the election of donald trump as the 45th president of the united states. they're going through states one by one. when he crosses 270 it is official. i think that will happen at or around the state of texas. 304 electoral votes donald trump had after electors met at state capitals across the country two weeks ago. at time two of donald trump's were peeled off the state of
texas, ironically enough. state he won by big margin. one went to john kasich and one to ron paul. that is being litigated. donald trump has 304 electoral votes more appreciably what he needs. hillary clinton will have 227 electoral votes appreciably less than what she needs. on the right, quest for dow 20,000. all the crosscurrents had it very, very close, but not close enough. charlie gasparino one of the things we're focusing on is this jobs report out today, that was steady, not great, but not awful. continuing your steady jobs growth but not great jobs growth. not inflationary either, kind of like goldilocks stuff. >> report you can build on. that was the initial push. neil: 156,000 jobs added, 4.7% unemployment. >> headline numbers but something you need to build on. as we scratch below the surface of those numbers it is good but it's not great.
that is reason we have donald trump as president. neil: i'm sorry. i keep interrupting. we get more on the vote to certify election results. joe biden was facing resistance from democrats who kept protesting and protesting these efforts. essentially has said, move on. there are those who are contesting the electoral college outcome but only way they can really make th a formal action is to win over democratic senator who will support the efforts, not a one has. and then they tried to work on a republican senator. >> good luck. neil: not a one has. so, you have no less than joe biden who is said a lot of critical things about donald trump, but on this particular matter has essentially told those proprotesters, those in the well of the house right now, move over. it is not official yet. he is more or less saying that's it. all right. go ahead.
>> kind of, the comedy of the democratic party is pretty interesting now. right before the election when it looked like hillary clinton was going to win, what people were saying, especially liberal democrats running around wall streets, the republican party is over. it is imemployeding. killing each other. neil: be careful of that stuff. >> look at this, this is insane comedy. , kind of counterproductive. if they want to get their act together, appeal to white working class voters. stop dividing the country by race and look at economic plight a defining feature which what used to be the democratic party was all about. have a legitimate debate with donald trump. not this garbage. he won. it's a over. neil: so is this drama at fort lauderdale airport we're told the shooter is in custody. we don't know if he ultimately succeeded shooting anyone. scared a lot of folkses. emptied out terminals two and three there but the drama is
over. you know how this goes, just getting everyone back in, things resumed, traffic in and around the airport and layered labyrinth of spoke and hub system of planes because of what is going on here. that appears to be over. i'm happy to report that as the dow makes another stab at 20,000, about nine plus points away. gerri willis, when you talk to investors, raising this with our buddy charles payne, it is huge, right but they hear stuff like this but to your point they're teased to come in but sometimes the individual, the rap used to be when your taxi driver is talking about it, you know it's too late. when people are diving in, it is supposed to be too late. what is reality here? >> look, i believe individual investors should invest in the stock market for the long haul. that is what i have said for years now. neil: what is the long haul
again? >> i think long haul until you retire for 40 years, 50 years, whatever it is. that gives millenials, in particular a leg up here in this -- neil: he hates millenials. >> maybe, these are the folks who should be investing in the markets. listen, at the end of the day, it has the best returns over bonds, over real estate, you name it. >> 40 years is long time to hold your breath. four years is a long time? that is underlying assumption of the 401(k) you will hold it a lifetime, working lifetime. that is the assumption. >> why can't you be a smart investor -- >> thanks, charlie. >> i'm not saying you're stupid. i didn't mean it like that. why can't -- neil: that is how i interpreted it. >> last person i would say that to by the way. why can't you approach it in a more deliberate way saying, hey, i'm going to bet where i get my best bang for the buck? by the way in 1980, if you were telling me buy stocks in 1980
when short-term interest rates at 20%, i would say you were crazy. there is no risk in a cd. >> right. there were a time money markets paying 5%. that time is not today. >> agree. >> your other guest earlier had a great explanation why stocks are valuable right now which is going on with bonds with which is the other large category. >> look at the bond market. the bond market is actually saying that trump can't do everything he wants to do. >> it is not just about trump. >> no, it is about fiscal policy. >> gerri, gerri -- >> i don't think it is just about trump. >> take it too me, talk to any, talk to bond traders. talk to bond traders they are worried about deficits. that's why bonds are trading off. and by the way, why interest rates are going up. i'm telling you if he does go nuts on spending, you know, you got an issue there. neil: he ironically might be reined in by his senate leader. >> that's true. neil: we still have trent lott,
i appreciate your patience. >> certainly. neil: i have grover norquist, very tough on candidates all running sticking to tax pledges and the like. grover, you hear a lot of talk what donald trump brings, we're talking big tax cuts but i did hear or make too big of a deal about jim jordan of the house freedom caucus telling me april is when they start addressing all of this tax stuff which would bring you latter part of those first 100 days and be in the next two 100 days. does that worry that this tax cut might be put off until then. >> no. we're looking at repealing obamacare taxes. that is trillion dollar in tax cuts. second tax cut is the tax reform ryan and brady working with the trump people on. that is a significant tax cut. that will be done in 100 days. i mean go to the senate. done in the house. go to the senate.
that is pretty quick turnover. i think the senate will largely accept what the house and president has done. neil: wouldn't be right off or get-go. trent lot, maybe shake my memory -- >> will take effect immediately. neil: i understand that. >> take effect january 1st. neil: did ronald reagan's tax cuts come out the gate. go ahead? >> big tax reform, big one was 1986. he came in office in '81. neil: i understand that. in '81, when it was first, the first go round -- >> i must say, i don't remember exactly when it was but do -- neil: why don't you remember? >> that was a few years ago. during the bush era, even though we had overtime election, we had a tax cut in the george w. bush period, i think by april. and, then we went on to other issues. but you you know, there is a lot of work already going on by
orrin hatch and ron wydennen in the senate and kevin brady and paul ryan in the house. they have got a good blueprint. will they get all of the tax cuts exactly the way they want them? there is a process you go through. they will get it done. neil: if they dial back, trent, my suspicion, could be me, a middling tax cut isn't going to cut it. it would have to be substantial, right? >> good point. >> i think it wille. i'm one of those that still believe that what you cut taxes in the right way, let people keep more of their money an invest it and deal with the corporate tax problems it will be spur to economy and get more of it. neil: i looking at market if it is racing ahead, if they got wind the tax cuts are delayed or watered down. >> they will not be delayed. neil: hang, on my, friend. i want to bring you back to the fort lauderdale airport the situation is contained. a lot of folks have not gotten word it has been contained or told to stick outside before until they go back in.
shooter is contained. that is operative word. that could mean have right things. we were told he was back in custody or contained. the problem is over. the mess is not. we don't know the origin of this event, what happened. whether he had been on a plane or been in a terminal. we're keeping an eye on it for you. you know the drill, when it happens, it affects traffic not only in our airport but our hub and spoke system and one airport's activities and regions can affect other. if you fly anywhere, dollar to doughnuts this could be affecting your very own flight. looks like everyone is safe and well. they're taking abundance of caution there. update you on developments on capitol hill where there has been a move afoot by some democrats to stop the electoral count in favor of donald trump, no less than the vice president of the united states has said, and i'm quoting here, it is over. move on. okay. >> i would say, maybe grover,
who is expert attacks policy and tax history i believe it was called under reagan the kemp-roth tax cuts i believe they came into play in 1982. the legislative scenario was different than we have you no. now we have republicans controlling all chambers. back then you had, i believe republicans controlled the senate. neil: needed southern democrats, bo weevils. >> tip o'neill, democrats, he was thousand speaker, controlled the house. reagan was the president. it took two years to get through that. this is different, they have everything, for one they have everything in one. all one party rule. here is the -- neil: but, trent lott, i believe those tax cuts were ultimately retroactive to the middle of '81, weren't they? is he gone? significant achievement. and of course in '86 too. let me emphasize, the senate and house will move forward on their commitments. i talked to one of the senate leaders, we'll meet weekends and meet at nights.
we'll get regulations repealed. we'll repeal obamacare and replace it and move to tax cuts. they will not delay it very long. neil: guys, i do want to go back to washington because this little drama, soap opera put joe biden in tough position to shoot down fellow democrats. let's listen here. >> as the chair previously ruled, a signature of a senator is required. >> mr. vice president, i have a writing for signature for myself, not yet a signature -- >> objection can not be received. the clerk will continue count. >> thank you, mr. president. mr. brady. >> mr. president -- neil: you keep hearing, you do not have a senator. that is the parliamentary procedure. if you protest something you have to have a senator who supports your efforts, democrat or republican. and i believe that was texas congresswoman sheila jackson lee, who was told, sit down because you doesn't have a senator. and you're wasting my time, our time. there is lunch to consider.
we've got things to do. i think i am cutting to the chase here. in other words this count goes on where they will review and certify the electoral college results will now virtually guarranty donald trump inaugurated as president two weeks from now. charles payne. >> when trent lott came on the most important thing he said was donald trump's vision. the next important thing 1 and 1-a is execution. i believe gop pose the biggest threat and i believe they will get their act together. as far as corporate taxes are concerned, i said all along big companies, if you tip the rate to 25%. it doesn't have to be 15%, that is kind of nuts. 25%, six quarters ago we hit all-time in corporate profits. we had all-time high in corporate profits at percentage of gdp. imagine under 25%. the market would be okay with that. that will not be a problem. timeline i think is there.
the market will understand, occasional hiccups in washington, d.c. hey, you don't get it one one hundred days we'll tank this thing as long as it looks like -- neil: this world where expectations are everything. jo think that is justified. i'm just saying that is why, you know, it is a perfect series of events that have to go this way. >> listen this is not, this is not the republican party it was a year ago. neil: right. >> okay? and it is not the republican party, even though the tea party won a big victory on november 8th, it is not a pure tea party republican party. they are going to spend the money. they are going to put money in infrastructure. get the tax cuts. neil: wouldn't that be -- >> mcconnell will not do that. >> mcconnell will play ball. neil: there is that thought, that he will have to suck it up. >> he will not -- paul ryan and mitch mcconnell will not sit there and blow the deficit up. >> they already are, blow it up, here is the trump team argument. we got to blow it up.
we've pot to reignite this economy and then we go act and deal with this. >> charles they will not blow it up with infrastructure spending. >> you will paul ryan is not president of the united states. >> he needs both of them. neil: grover, if you saw right now that there is likelihood that you don't get infrastructure spending but you do get the tax cuts, you would be happy with that, so let me flip it around, and you get infrastructure spending as well, that would wipe out benefits you see from the tax cuts, right? >> trump is going to be president and be clear what he has written in his book, what is on his website and what he said. he wants a trillion dollars in infrastructure. that includes privately-funded, pipelines and refineries, and all the infrastructure, much of which is privately-funded. they talked about 150 billion in tax credits to spur 850 billion in private sector spending. when they say a trillion
dollars, they're talking about 850 private sector money. u.s. chamber of commerce did a study. there are a million jobs waiting because permits have been denied everywhere from anwar drilling in anwar alaska and other places already to go if they had the permit. you let the permits happen, doesn't cost a penny from the federal government. it is private infrastructure. pipelines are privately-owned. neil: i know i'm inskipping around here. we have so much going on, folks. upper left, fort lauderdale airport, this is coming from channel 7 news there there were six shooting victims at that airport. we don't know the status of those victims. we do know terminals were cleared. hundreds are on the tarmac presumably from those cleared terminals after a shooting that appeared in the lower baggage claim area. we do know again multiple people are shot.
we don't know their status. we do know the shooter has been confined but that is about, about it. now the uncertainty of that can whipsaw obviously folks there but take oomph out of markets when they hear news of this. >> this is steady back beet goes on in the culture. once a month, twice a month, you hear a story like this and could impact the markets. it goes to consumer confidence and confidence is important to see what the economy does. you want to hear less of this. this is tragedy going on. people have been shot. you will hear more of this kind of thing. neil: we don't know, i hasten to attach one event to the other, when we got word of this first, the dow obviously slipped back a little bit. we got more details of this, it slipped back again. i would be the first to say there is no quid pro quo here. uncertainty is uncertainty, still uncertain the fate of
those six people and severity of those wounds. we're also paying attention what is going on in washington today. what is not uncertain is where this all ends up there where donald trump will effectively be cleared for takeoff two weeks from now to be the next president of the united states. they're officiating those results. joe biden is in the tough position of having to dismiss democrats in their protests here on this electoral vote. part of what they do here is to try to say, i protest this. which they're free to do but, the way this arcane procedure can sometimes work, as you're looking at senator blunt of missouri boeing through -- going through this as parliamentarian senate. you have to have a senator supporting your efforts, republican or democrat, as sheila jackson lee found out the hard way, not having that, this is not going forward until
joe biden is in the position of al gore was in 2001, having turned down efforts really made on his behalf to turn the electoral vote away and have him become next president of the united states. didn't happen then. he was in the tough position of having to slap it down and now joe biden, who has been very critical of donald trump, he is thin-skinned, acts like a baby all that doesn't matter, he is a saying unless you have something to go on and senator to support your efforts it is over. those are his words, it is over. his way of saying donald trump will secure the number of electoral votes he needs to be president. when you look at all of that, one of the things i think of, charles payne, imagine if a senator did materialize, or two, then all of a sudden what the heck? >> kind of hard to believe one hasn't. neil: yeah, yeah. >> the attempts to derail donald trump's win from, we, at
least america got a civics history, a civics lesson i got to tell you some of the different arcane things they attempted to do since november 8th have been mind-boggling. i'm surprised sheila lee jackson didn't show up with some senator. at this point the joe bidens of world, hey, to charlie gasparino's point, we're looking dumb. we're looking like petulent children. >> that never stopped them in the past. >> you're right. neil: imagine it was the other way around? >> it was supposed to be other way around. they may go with keith ellison and same people in leadership. they don't listen. >> isn't it crazy the voice of reason is crazy joe biden? every now and then -- >> he is the drunk uncle at thanksgiving but doesn't start out that way. >> that is perfect analogy. he is crazy and says some wacky things but a guy you kind of like. he is smart guy.
>> he is a real dude in his own world, his own mind. would have done better than hillary, hate to say. probably would have won. neil: we're finding out a little bit more about the shooting. i don't want you to think we have forgotten about it. it took lace at lower level baggage claim, terminal two, 39 minutes ago. it was active shooter call at one point. then a single shooter. they quickly cleared out the terminal around gates d and 4. that is the north side of the airport we're told. they have closed out the lower level between terminals 2 and 3. effectively half the airport from what we understand has been shut down. no flights getting out of the airport, hundreds ever passengers and airport employees cleared the area. taken outside for their safety. this area has been secured. about 1:25 p.m., 13, 14 minutes ago, they were still outside and
told not to go back in. those with flights into or out of the area are being urged to check their schedules. i would imagine that is an understatement. you know, elsewhere that it is going to affect traffic like neighboring airports. gerri, you raised a good point, these are outside events you can not plan but sadly become all too routine. >> it is unexpected surprises that turn markets on its ear. election of donald trump. could be something like this that blows up into something bigger. reality is -- neil: more severe, something how we get used to this. >> you know we're reporting on it but we're not spending that much time on it. no insult intended to your producers that is reality of the world today. neil: you have a lot going on here. we're minutes away separately from seeing donald trump officially getting certified as the next president of the united states on 304 electoral votes.
that could happen any minute. can we dip into joe biden here, guys. >> the whole number of electors appointed vice president of the united states is 538, of which 270 is the majority. michael r. pence of state of indiana received for vice president of the united states 305 votes. tim kaine of commonwealth, tim kaine of the commonwealth of virginia has received -- there will be order. sergeant-at-arms remove. >> i rise to -- we object to electoral -- >> sergeant-at-arms will remove. [shouting] >> bawls -- be in order. commonwealth of virginia received 227 votes. liz with warren commonwealth of massachusetts receive two. maria cantwell state of washington received one. susan collins state of maine received one.
carly fiorina, commonwealth of virginia received one. sergeant-at-arms, remove the protesters from the gallery. [shouting] chamber will be in order. chamber will be in order. [shouting] >> clerk? state of minnesota received one vote. announcement of the state of the vote by the president of the senate, shall be sufficient declaration of the persons elected president an vice president of united states. each of, each for a term beginning on the 20th day of january, 2017. and she will be entered together with the list of the votes on the journal of the senate and house of representatives. the purpose of this joint session, having been concluded, pursuant to the senate
concurrent resolution 2, of the 115th congress the chair declares the joint session dissolved. [applause] there you have. neil: donald trump is cleared to be next president of the united states. you heard those protests, those were not elected representatives, although it got pretty nasty with elected representatives, sheila jackson lee was leading a revolt to deny donald trump 270 electoral votes he needs. he finished with at least 300. that is in some dispute because some might have been peeled off in the room today. i don't know how that would happen. also that vice president elect mike pence have secured the votes. they have to elect separately for each of them. had it been protested, one would
be settled in the house and one settled in the senate. you could conceivably vice president of one party and president from another party which would be wild. but that is not going to happen. it is interesting to point out here that that now that this issue seems to have been settle the dow suddenly racing towards 20,000 again. charlie gasparino, your thoughts? >> one less thing to worry about i guess. i think charles brought it up listening to biden, markets tend to shrug off these sort of issues. i'm not saying they should. i don't think we should look at everything from a market perspective but the shooting. even if, who knows if it is terrorism or not we don't know. markets get used to this pretty fast after the initial jolt. neil: that in itself gerri was saying it has. >> it part of life. neil: indeed. >> initial thing we get some selling but everything comes back and gets back to notion what's the economy going to do
and what's donald trump going to do. markets in the short term are imperfect. short term likes fiscal stimulus. i want to see what he actually does coming out of the box economically. that i think is key. >> they will spend more. i hear what grover is saying. we heard the public/private from president obama. i think we'll have more debt. i think we should be. we've railed against 20 trillion and counting. i think we'll have more debt. someone like steve moore would tell you, don't panic because give it a year or two. the economic turn around and then start to focus on shaving -- >> neil makes a good point. neil: debt grows. >> neil makes a good point, you didn't have to spend additional time the debt grows through the roof. neil: interest rates going up, interest rates going up. >> higher interest rates are make it worse.
we can afford it when interest rates are zero. how will we afford isn't. >> i will say this, we had similar conflicting policies in the reagan administration. we had keynesian spending in military and tax cuts. the difference was, the deficit and debt picture was not out of control back then as it is now. you do play with fire, when you start exponentially blowing out the deficit, especially in the next couple of years. >> you brought up defense though. donald trump has been tough on these defense contractors. >> yeah. >> he is going places no republican has gone before. >> that's true. >> publicly chastising them, telling them you will bring prices down. it would be a lot easier to get our fiscal house in order if republicans took a small bite on defense spending, even get out the lard, then maybe, i know he doesn't want to touch it, but somehow address the other issues, social security, and medicare.
not initially, but maybe in two years. >> i think if he gets the economy moving, be real clear here, if we get economic growth, that could really happen with some of these policies at 3 1/2%, 4% -- >> hallelujah. >> donald trump can basically do whatever he wants. >> neil, let me jump in here. neil: go ahead, trent. >> on defense spending, as a matter of fact we need to do a job, better job on defense spending. could we have savings yes, but we need to spend more money ships and updating aircraft. neil: you have to watch out throwing good money after bad, right? >> you don't want to waste money. acquisition reform needs to take place in the pent gone. john mccain a lot of others will be for that. they have good people who know where the money needs to go. i don't want to say throw money at it. i want to go back to one other point grover made, on infrastructure we could do a lot more with private funding we have done. even in europe they have done more than we have.
when you look attacks provisions, what pay-fors, when they bring back some of the money parked overseas, should earmark some of that into infrastructure. there are a lot of ways they can have major infrastructure bill without exploding the deficit. even back in the late '90s when we did the balanced budget agreement that led to surplus with bill clinton, we cut taxes first and went to the balanced budget agreement, by controlling spending. and it wound up with a surplus and we haven't had it since. it can be done, give tax relief, create jobs and grow the economy. >> that takes discipline. we haven't seen it in washington in how long. neil: how long, is right. we're getting word in this arizona shooting. i'm sorry, in florida, several people are dead, in fort lauderdale. i don't know what more to delay, now talk of multiple dead in the shooting and the shooter in custody.
that's all i can tell you there. again news like that, breaks all of sudden the dow drops. there is no correlation sometimes. you are hanging on uncertainty of something whether that hangs on things. market has been sprinting ahead, moves tantalizing on word last impediment to donald trump becoming president had failed and his election was certified in washington today with joe biden doing the certifying and yelling at a lot of protesters an fellow democrats who wanted to take the last opportunity to make that not happen. it did. it is over. those were his words on all of that. too the floor of the new york stock exchange where we have nicole petallides. nicole, tantalizingly close, we have to wonder whether there are programs and psychology the closer we get and all of sudden selling ensues we get farther away. >> when you hit the 20,000 mark,
cross above it and hold it is a whole another story. to hit it would be one thing, close above 20,000 would be a whole another thing. there could be sell programs that get into place right near the 20,000 mark. i would not be surprised to see that. when you look at market breadth, thedown volume is slightly outpacing the up volume. we've seen strength in financials, industrials and consumers stocks and the like. we're 10 points away. we got within less than half of one point. it gets extremely loud here. , it gets so exciting. it is a fun place to be. big picture here, every time we close, they watched very closely, everything that happened in fort lauderdale. that is uncertainty that spooked investors to certain extent. the feeling now that has passed.
art cashin of ubs floor trading sent out a note, assuming we get past this fort lauderdale thing, we'll likely see another try here in the next hour or so, 2:30 to 3:00. neil: nicole, let me ask you about that. when donald trump was certified winner of election, remember this has gone back and forth like a long winding soap a, i noticed dow making another charge to 20,000. are there any concerns it wouldn't work out his way in washington? >> everybody was watching with the electoral votes and obviously investigations into his win and the like, i don't think anybody thought he was not going to be our president. i think it was bumps in the road. i think the idea here, now people are saying maybe we don't hit 20,000 until inauguration. that was something everybody said late last year.
now we're less than nine points away, might as well hit it. the program trading is an interesting point. as we get closer you might see settle programs. neil: there is something going on when that happens. >> hard to get through that and break through. we did that with the s&p 500 five times and we broke through. we've gotten very close a couple times. maybe by the fourth or fifth time we'll break through on the dow. neil: by the way we got official results. 304 electoral votes for donald trump, 227 for hillary clinton. there is some dispute as to the total that is broken down and electors who might have stuck with the vice president-elect. that is whole separate issue, suffice it to say as expected donald trump cleared last hurdle that would deal with him becoming next president of the united states. you're saying. >> a source emailing me a fairly active trader, a lot of traders
are short-term oriented, this is not the average investors, a lot went short on the vote and went short on shooting. neil: in other words betting -- >> betting something would be bad coming out of both. the vote came out positive. the shooting i'm not saying it is positive, because people are dead, word on street, traders, don't think it is terrorism. that is what traders are saying. not saying it is true. neil: what if it were? >> they covered for the wrong reason. you saw the pop initially down on. >> such a thing, betting on the -- neil: getting close i always tried to figure what level it kicks in. 1995, and 995. then it dips back. it keeps making the same charge.
it can't be an algorithm, can it? what is it? >> why can't it? neil: yeah. >> i think it could be frankly. i think so much of the trading -- neil: multiple ways, gets to 1995, 1990, know what i mean? >> yeah, i think there is, algorithms, i'm last guy to talk about this, other than friend of mine runs one of the bigger shops -- neil: you do this stuff, payne. >> no. i will tell you from technical analysis when a key resistance point fails foreseen period of time you see a big pullback and they come back. >> algos play off of that. neil: this too, guys, we've been speaking, a lot of stuff going on, it is within a tight range. gets down to the 19980 some odd level and then buying kicks in. 19,995. >> once it breaks through
20,000, can it hold it to the close? can it hold it to the next day or next month? neil: that is great point. we had intraday highs almost to 20,000. but we're not closing. >> key support point if we break out will be 198,937. that was the main resistance number last seven days. when we break out, 20,000 is the round number. that is the technical support. neil: what does that mean -- >> if you break out through it. then you wait for a while. profit-taking, right? that is what the smart guys do. see who wants to sell. if it holds up above 19,937 i think that is the next launching pad. >> so don't get to 20,000. >> talking about pull being bash dish. >> what do you do with the music? >> tell you what i ordered for my show. groove line. oldies coshow. can we start this off. neil: amazing. >> can you perform that for us? neil: amazing. baby. neil: we look, i just wanted to
save the audience do you look at this crunching by some numbers this is rich market. more the economy improves and support as much higher market. do you buy that? >> yeah, i do. economy and earnings have to justify the rally from here on out. in other words, it is okay. we could be a little ahead of ourselves but next round of earnings, we've got to justify where we are, from a -- >> they don't have to justify immediately. >> as we go along, at these levels do your guys tell you? >> depends donald trump fiscal policy, i understand that right now in terms of multiples? >> if you were stopping right now yes of course the market is rich. we're pricing into the future. this is why i'm hesitant about the market. will he come out tariff guy or
low taxfy? >> don't you want a clear list what they want to get done? there is so much on the table right now, who knows. >> that is why i wouldn't be jumping in feet first right now. neil: when you hear, people come up to you, gerri, all right, i might want in now, just based on what i'm hearing following fbn. hearing charlie and charles and gerry, they want to dive in right now in hope of making money next year, what would you tell them? >> next year. no. you have to have a longer time horizon. if you're a individual investor, want you to be committed to the market, invest, profit and succeed and do well but you can't have a tomorrow attitude. neil: but you can also look and say, a lot of people looked at apple, right, when it crossed $50, fast run-up, i will get out now. when it got up to 75, oh i'm getting out now. what do you tell them? >> oh, god. i do that every day.
i got out too soon. you don't want to beat yourself up. psychology it will not go 100% your way. gerri is right. if you buy one stock jump in you now, go to vegas have a better time. neil: really. >> get shows and drinks and gamble. >> particularly apple. neil: unlimited breakfast. >> unlimited breakfast. there is clearly certain stocks that -- neil: that is one place you seem so at home? >> where? neil: vegas. >> i like working out. seriously i like the shows. i don't gamble at all. >> a day in the life of charlie gasparino. >> i love the restaurants, are off the charts. neil: sure. >> strip clubs are -- i'm only kidding. people are blushing already. >> i'm not blushing. i'm getting ready to punch you. that is totally different. neil: a lot of people look at? market, call it the trump rally
from ashley webster, hear it from foreigners, not saying that ashley is foreigner, by the way. that america is leading this charge? that we're going to be the global? >> we clearly are in a leadership position right now. no doubt about it. europe is on its heels. i think that is what you see. look at who it announces.
they uncover a little thing is not off the table yet. the trade war is not off the table. does it amaze you that goldman sachs is a single best performer here. >> now he's making up for it. >> he attacked hillary on this very point. now looking at that. because of the extensive stock. now it helps. it also helps to think they're getting rid of the certain things. >> that is irony here. i love that. i want to thank you all again. close but as of yet no cigar.
it have gotten within a third of a point. still two hours to go. >> it is official a donald trump will be the next president of the united states. he will be leading the free world. and for wall street it will be a pricier world. >> breaking right now we had been following this multiple casualties from shooting at the fort a lot of dora airport. the suspect is in custody we will bring you the very latest news we watch the markets and the nasdaq's all hitting record intraday highs. they're coming in within one point 20,000. now about 16 points away. it's been a very busy day so far. and welcome everyone for the intelligence report. the major averages hitting all-time highs today.