tv Irish Ambassador to the U.S. Daniel Mulhall Others on Brexit CSPAN October 17, 2019 7:37am-9:14am EDT
captioning performed by vitac completely clear on that and the organizations that would -- might threaten some kind of violence are very small splinter groups from the irish republican movement and they have little or no support anywhere in ireland. but that doesn't stop them from being dangerous. the risk is that if you have any kind of border, infrastructure on the island of ireland, that elements like that will take the opportunity of attacking, of targeting those facilities and that could then create an escalation that could be problematic in a place like northern ireland where passions run high on these issues. but there's no sense in which we want to see a border on the irish sea.
i think what is required is some way of ensuring that the open border on the island of ireland doesn't undermine the single market. because we are committed to respecting the integrity and to preserving the integrity of the single market. >> okay. we're closing here on our time. i would suggest to our panelists, one issue, one minute. >> all right. i will respond to the question about whether nato and the united kingdom might develop some sort of special arrangement in order to try to -- i think gather your question was to try to maintain its role, its importance within the alliance. i don't think that's likely to happen. i don't think the alliance would pursue something like that. the uk of course will hang on to as desperately as it can all of the fore-structure, infrastructure, et cetera, that it has within its borders for nato. so i wouldn't expect that to change.
but as we've discussed and i think i think as dan mentioned, i think the outlook for the uk's role in nato as sort of this second fiddle is bleak and i don't think there's much frankly that the alliance can do about that. >> thank you. i would concur and also i may disagree, actually, with you, dan, on nato -- on the american view on how nato is reinforced by the uk leaving the eu. i think i subscribe to what john said about the uk's diminished abilities and nato has other problems to deal with, what's happening in syria today is catastrophic and we have an american president that's also causing problems for the alliance. so i don't think that the alliance is in good shape, but i don't think that the uk's exit from the eu is going to make it stronger in any way. on the one point i wanted to maybe tackle is from you, sir, about the eu's foreign policy priorities and how that may change with brexit. i don't see much of a change
there, to be honest. one reason being that the eu's main tools are either tools to which the uk did not contribute much or to which it could still contribute as a third-country partner in the future whether it's civil military operations can totally include some third parties development aid can be coordinated in a way, hopefully, that both parties can agree similarly with the economic sanctions. there's going to be a continued coordination, i guess, on russia sanctions. there is a risk, obviously, of a longer-term drift, but in the next, say, five years, i don't see the eu changing radicalically as a result of brexit or the eu's foreign policy ability being so diminished as a result of brexit and i will stop here. there is also increased nato coordination for which everyone should rejoice instead of constantly saying it's one
against the other. >> i completely agree with alice on the impact of foreign policy at least in the short term. and i think it's more of a dilemma for the uk itself than it is for the eu. i think the uk is in a very difficult position, vis-a-vis the united states has been previously discussed especially on an issue like china, for instance, where you have one of the notions of brexit wants to pursue global britain, have trade agreements with countries around the world such as china and the trump administration very much leaning in, pushing britain and european countries to take a tougher approach toward china. that is posing a dilemma i think for london. it's posing a dilemma for europe as well. but europe is better able to handle that. that sort of illustrates the irony of brexit, it makes the uk less sovereign in a world of big dogs when you're a medium-sized power. i think briefly on the question about will there be contagion
and more brexits, i think very clearly for any foreseeable future, the answer is clearly no. if anything the tumultuous brexit negotiations and the prospect facing the uk has simply, you know, led to the notion of exiting the eu becoming unthinkable and that's why you're seeing countries and the population -- the opinion polls in countries becoming more favorable toward the eu and even some of the far-right movements in le pen and france and others, no longer openly advocating leaving the eu as such or leaving the euro zone or maybe trying to change from within. but that is something i think is far more easier to handle than will there be more brexits. >> thank you. and i will try to be very short. i think it was -- there was a question related to -- i think there was a question related to russian influence. from my perspective with my background in political science and as a political science
researcher, i think this is very interesting because it emphasizes the importance -- the increasing importance or the increasing unpredictability of developments. and as we know, brexit and the other event was the election of donald trump in the u.s. have been two examples of events which were -- failed to be predicted by opinion polls. and i think this raises a question and it does what makes it interesting for research in the future to find new ways to try to estimate citizens' attitudes and people's opinions which are important for political outcomes and the second point i would likes to make is in relation to future relations.
and so according to the alliance theory, the alliance theory predicts that when there are two actors which have a common matrix of security threats and a similar -- and are exposed to a similar constellation of threats, plus the weak commitment of a common ally, the alliance theory predicts a strategic alignment between these two actors. now, if we were to apply this to our case, in this case, we have the uk and europe exposed to a similar constellation of threats. we have seen the u.s. recently withdrawing from several agreements. so we could expect both the unique and europe aiming to a strategic alignment after brexit but we need to emphasize that at the time of this talking, our
discussions are counter effective because we do not know whether there will be a uk withdraw from the eu with an agreement, whether there would be a postponement of brexit, whether there would be a no deal. so, yeah, everything should be -- yeah, thought in these terms as counter factual analysis. thank you. >> thank you. so this one point, on the -- from the u.s. point of view, if you think of the eu member states, the only two countries really who have had this broader strategic horizon historically and in recent past and that's the uk and france. and i think to answer andrea's question, i think, jeff, without that uk voice within the eu, france is going to find it very lonely and strategic horizons of the eu will narrow. france will have to fight that.
but i think it will find it hard. and i think from a u.s. point of view, that's not going to be good. on that happy note, thank you so much for bringing us all together. i wish you great success with your book. everyone go buy it, please. and we hope -- it's good reading for you. mr. ambassador, thank you again for joining us. and our panelists, please join me in thanking them. [ applause ] we have a reception here next door if anyone would like to continue the conversation with our panelists or with each other. come and join us. thank you again for coming. appreciate it. thank you. i pledge allegiance
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