tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg July 15, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
e, providing some insurance cuts. caroline: gains on the nasdaq and s&p -- dow and nasdaq. s&p completely flat. scarlet: now we can say we closed at record highs. another day of all-time highs. the russell off .5%. caroline: this is something you are always looking at. romaine: small caps continue to underperform. this was an incredibly tight trading range. we have about a nine-point swing on the s&p 500. that is the tightest range since mid-september. you are not seeing a lot of people entering new positions. there are a lot of people may be waiting for a better entry point. jones had a dow
swing of 70.5 points, the lowest in at least three months. caroline: down 12% on the dow. romaine: let's dive into the action with our markets reporters. abigail, get us started. abigail: i am on amazon watch because it is the first day of the annual prime day sale event for amazon. i'm watching the $1 trillion mark with amazon almost there, similar to earlier last week when it be fluent above $1 trillion. same thing last september. this year, a huge run up. now about $7 billion away. it will be interesting to see as reports come in whether it will be enough to push the shares above $1 trillion. . emma: i was watching oil tumbling below $60 a barrel and suffering the worst loss in about two weeks. a couple of reasons for this, hurricane barry moving inland allowing drillers to restart
production in the gulf of mexico but also the long-term outlook for prices was brought into focus with data from china. economic growth slowing to a three-decade low. the trade dispute continuing to weigh on sentiment. it could be sometime before we see new highs for the oil market. the $60 level is a key psychological level. fallen below it will be a blow to bowls. the last 12-month hiking back in october -- high came back in october. : i'm taking a look at steel stocks which got an interesting bump during the session today after president trump said he would increase u.s. steel usage. as a result, we saw the steel index rise a little bit during that session. stocks,know particular
the steel index rose during the session. we saw the holding up to its highest since july 8 to we saw you still up the most since june 25 during the session which looks like it ended. throughout the entire year, u.s. steel is down because president steels tariffs on foreign have cost you a steel more than $5 billion. that was -- u.s. steel more than $5 billion. that was a significant portion of its market cap. is ede: still with us - campbell and sarah ponczek. a little bit of steeping last week. it looks like the rally could resume. do you think as we get further toward the rate cut, we will see heavy buying in treasuries or
will we see a selloff? reward-riskoint, ratio for treasuries has deteriorated. we have seen a big move so far this year. the fact that the fed is dovish will keep a lid on yields. most of the downside is in play so i do not see tremendous opportunity in government bonds at this point. scarlet: was interesting from the earnings report was they are not fully positioned for a rate cut which i thought was interesting because everyone is expecting rate cuts. how do you make sense of that? >> i think it is sort of a bimodal thing. the key judgment is, are we going into recession? if we are going into recession, if this is too little, too late, the fed will wind up going to zero and restart quantitative easing. this is a midcycle slowdown,
which is our judgment, it is more likely to be one and two and done. i think that is reflected in market pricing. caroline: even if michael does not think the market is fully positioned for a fed cut, we are still seeing money moving into stocks, particularly etf's. >> if you look at the largest etf's that track the s&p 500, we saw combined more than $6 billion enter those funds last week. caroline: that is a lot. >> it is a lot. it is one of the best weeks this year and the third-best combined week this year. that says a lot considering we have seen a 20% rally your to date. this goes back to the idea that many investors believe we will get a rate cut. these are insurance cuts. most not believe we are entering a recession.
we would not be seeing massive inflows into stop etf's. you have to ask yourself if we are seeing optimism, whether they are traders or more institutional or retail investors. we are seeing more interest from hedge funds and in the options market more bullish positioning as well. romaine: where does the dollar come into play with a lot of people saying the u.s. appears bone theying to joaw dollar lower. what is your take? >> i think the dollar is a key barometer to watch. one of two things would cause us to go overweight risky assets more broadly. one is if we got a pullback in the other is if we got improvement in non-u.s. growth. in that environment, you would see the dollar decline. that would be the catalyst you need for things like emerging
markets which are very attractively valued. that would be the catalyst you need to spark outperformance. earlier aboutlked how the russell 2000 has been lagging behind mid-caps. what does that say? >> that signals to me u.s. growth expectations are still being downgraded. there is not that inflection point just yet. given the fact that non-u.s. economies are so far ahead of the u.s. in terms of the cycle, i would expect growth conditions to turn around there before you see anything in the u.s. economy. i do not expect small cap outperforms to be imminent. caroline: in many ways related to oil oil moves. oil has been a drive on the market -- drive on the market -- drag on the market.
taylor: last week, we did see it up more than 4.5%. we saw a reversal today largely due to supply concerns. you are dealing with tropical storm barry and gold. at the same time, when you think about the long-term implications, many have continued to point to the fact it is not demand trumping supply. if you have concern about china, global demand and the global economy, and at the same time we have heard the government -- not the government -- for agencies say they are worried as it relates to supply. not from opec from non-opec entities like the united states pumping more oil. you have to take all of this into account. scarlet: taking into account the small points when we have seen in the dow. the longest since december of 2017.
another record high but lacking in volume. romaine: "what'd you miss?" caroline: china's data showing weak growth but some signs of stabilization. the earnings bonanza is off to an upbeat start. warnings ring out. j.p. morgan and wells fargo report tomorrow. steven mnuchin joins the growing chorus of concerns about facebook's libra. but first, to china. it hit the weakest pace since data began in 1992. to rose just 6.2% april june, underscore and how much pressure -- underscoring how much pressure chinese lawmakers are under.
6.2%. do you believe it? >> we do not believe this. i think the key is china's gdp data is never accurate. there are a lot of reasons. it is not always political manipulation. a lot of it is lag. sometimes it takes a long time to collect the data. when the chinese see a problem in the economy, they do not want to show the growth indicators have fallen off a cliff so they spread the weakness until later. a lot being reported his weakness we saw a earlier in the year. we are seeing much better metrics in our own data. taylor: how much better do things appear? what gauges do you look at? signs ofing, positive retail sales and factory output. what other indicators can you look to to give you a better indicator of what is going on? >> it collects from over 3300
firms. within that, we track manufacturing, services, and retail. manufacturing and retail are outperforming. property is fine. major sectors are doing better than reported. the new reports are reflecting what is happening better than the ones a few weeks ago. look at credit. when you look at official credit indicators, it takes a long time for certain elements to filter into government data. we show an extremely active credit environment for all of 2019. there's a lot more credit going out. it should not surprise people there is more growth that will come from it because the chinese are more aggressive than people think. romaine: what do you make of the retail sales data? some people are discounting it because it was all car sales. >> when we look at retail for the second quarter, it was a lot better than we thought. manufacturing was better than we thought it would be. services again down.
retail sales in june, the lowest growth in multiple decades gets the headline. the june numbers even through inicial data saw a bump industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment. things are looking better. that does not mean is our great. that does not mean there is not pressure on the trade side. it means the headlines are overly confusing. caroline: that is why we saw a raise in asian stock market trading. getting better? can we thank the central bank or the chinese government for that? >> part of it is the trade war is in a stalemate right now. the chinese prepare their economy in the fourth quarter to deal with the nightmare scenario. if president went 25% on all $500 billion, they wanted to cushion the blow.
it does not look like it will happen soon. the credit support they put in the economy is more than they need. as a result, it will continue to cushion and push up what they should be doing in a neutral economy. taylor: is the worst behind us? does that mean the u.s. has more to lose in a trade fight been china does if they have already bottomed out? thinkn we look at 2019, i people have been too much into the fallen off a cliff narrative. every time the chinese do what they are doing now, they are kicking the can down the road. it means they are putting a lot of their credit into riskier borrowers. they are getting a worse return on investment. that means growth will slow in the future. we have a long sloan trajectory going forward. short-term, you should not believe this beautiful line that dips every quarter in gdp. romaine: you talk about the
credit they are pumping to boost the economy. ubs and j.p. morgan talked about how that is going toward land projects rather than infrastructure which would have more of a multiplier effect on the economy. do you think the money they are pumping into the economy is being utilized the right way to sustain growth? >> that is a tough question. do not trackmorgan what corporate's are doing. even though the top line results looked better, unlike the first quarter, you did not see investment jump. optimistics more coming from a bad fourth quarter. second quarter, firms are still cautious. they see the trade war. this is a cautious time. that said, things are better than people think. caroline: taylor, earlier you were showing u.s. companies we should be looking out for in
earnings season that have been in the middle of the trade war. visit seen some numbers might not be as bad as we expect? taylor: a lot of strategists said the resolution of the g20 did not come soon enough. a lot of the bad numbers will be baked into q2. there was not enough of a boost to recover from that. chipmakers with the most exposure. and then you get the bellwether companies like boeing or caterpillar on the industrial side. the strategy note says outside of financials, it will be industrials. they are getting lower revisions but my continue to do well. second half of the year might be shaky but it might be ok if we can get through it. it looks like the second quarter will be bad but there would be a pickup in the third quarter. and lookk off earnings
at the effects of china on companies, is the second half want to be the bottom out as it relates to the trade affects on companies? >> i think unless you see a major step up in the trade war, president those harder at china, and that is not what anyone thinks will happen, i think there is a lot of credit provision in the economy people do not understand. we are not looking for the falloff in growth. seeing a lotre more strength in our data than in official data. that is because it has not flown through. when the official data catches up with our data, i think you may see upside surprise later in the year. romaine: that is leland miller. thank you. why the bank is being forced to lean into cost cuts and what it could mean for the rest of earnings week. this is bloomberg. ♪
taylor: citigroup kicking off a busy week of earnings for major banks. they talked analysts -- topped analysts addictions despite the loss -- predictions despite a loss in revenue. for more, we are joined by allison williams. this morning when the earnings crossed, what struck my eye was the praise citigroup got for cost-cutting. we know you cannot cut wage growth. how is citigroup's cost-cutting better from other banks we have seen? >> for one, there is cost-cutting to improve efficiency. and then there is the amount of money you have to invest.
citigroup is benefiting from the fact they are becoming more efficient in some areas allowing them to continue to invest. to some extent, the benefit this year is because fourth quarter was a difficult that they implemented a lot of measures. they ended up missing their cost target in the fourth quarter because the environment changed drastically. now a lot of cost-cutting measures will come through in the second half. costs will is their be coming down in the second half. that gives them some protection against revenue risk. investors were worried about they were factoring in one rate cut later in the year and that is not what the market is expecting. romaine: did you think to yourself, this is more of a permanent change or shift in the trading environment or their ability to make money off trading or something temporary? >> the fixed trading environment
does continue to struggle. a lot of that is macro. we keep waiting for that to get better and that is not happening. the positive thing from a structural standpoint is the fact we are seeing benefit on the corporate side of things. the negative that has not come through the past several years is the asset management clients have remained under pressure. that is going to mean less trading. citigroup talked about strength on their derivatives business and equities as a pocket of strength. pocket of strength was equity derivatives with corporate. that should be positive for j.p. morgan. we will see how much. that is more a negative for goldman sachs. equity trading missing is one of the reasons why you saw goldman sachs trading down today. those companies are much bigger in the business.
i think those results are more meaningful tomorrow. caroline: the cfo was talking about the uncertainty in challenging market environments. should we be nervous ahead of tomorrow? >> i think it is more about the future outlook. numbers, thes equity bar is lower. their business is small compared to j.p. morgan and goldman sachs. there could be other factors at play. the other difference with citigroup is they are mostly in currency trading. to your point, it is about the outlook. one of the positives, equity fees better-than-expected. they said dialogues are positive, this should be a good thing. but with all the risk, we cannot count on that to continue into
the future. it is about the third quarter and beyond. caroline: busy woman. we are pleased you are able to spare time for us. time to look at what is trending across the bloomberg universe. they will pay about 25 nine dollars to settle allegations -- $25 million to settle allegations. bloomberg.com has a story on tankan -- cancun. thousands of pounds have been piling up on beaches turning them into snowy eyesores -- smelly eyesores. the mexican economy is already teetering on recession. a report from the moral -- from the world health organization says sugar is not correctly
advertised in baby products. products do not reported correctly which could raise the risk of diabetes and obesity. story on myher radar is the blackout in new york city over the weekend that crippled much of manhattan, including me stuck in the subway for 90 minutes. i could make it about me all day long. but the investor reaction has been muted and i would argue this is normal. investors can you usually -- can usually shrug it off like they did with con ed. romaine: stuck for 90 minutes? did you make any new friends? taylor: no. there was air-conditioning and lights, but otherwise pretty bad. romaine: this is bloomberg.
mark: i am mark crumpton with bloomberg's first word news. 62 border patrol employees are under internal investigation following revelations of the secret facebook group that mocked lawmakers and migrants. the offices eight former members are also under investigation. posts being looked at questioned the authenticity of images of the dead migrant father and child. it also had crude doctored images of alexandria across your chance --of alexandria ocasio-cortez. president trump said there were raids against undocumented immigrants printer nationwide
crackdown was due to begin this past weekend targeting migrant families in cities across the country. president trump came into our country illegally. many were convicted of crimes. many were taken out on sunday. you just did not know about it. in fact, i spoke to the head of ice. i spoke to a couple people. we had many people. it was a very successful day. added thatresident the truth was it started a number of days before yesterday. the world health organization is meeting in geneva to decide whether the continuing ebola outbreak in congo warrants be declared a global emergency. the agency confirmed the spread of the disease into the city. >> the identification of the case could potentially be a game changer in this epidemic. it is a city of 2 million people
near the border with rwanda and is a gateway to the region and the world. measuresnfident in the we have put in place and hope we will see no further transmission of ebola. mark: the latest ebola outbreak has killed nearly 1700 people, mostly in congo. in louisiana, more than a foot of rain has fallen prompting new flash flood warnings in that state in mississippi. today's rainfall was among the heaviest so far after barry struck louisiana over the weekend. the storm overwhelmed sewer systems in alabama causing sewage spills of more than 250,000 gallons. global news 24 hours a day on air and on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton.
this is bloomberg. romaine: wall street research division is taking a note from an unlikely source, budget airlines. now, wall street is doing the same thing. you want to meet with an economist? it will cost you. banks itemizing research costs for clients. the senior writer is here with a story. every time i pick up the phone to call my lawyer, i think he charges by the question. >> airlines were not always like this. is to be paid one fee and got everything -- it used to be you paid one fee and got everything. it changed as they wanted to bring down costs. in europe, there are new rules that went into effect about a year and a half ago. separatelyo charge
sending your trades to the brokerage firm and you got the research free. that is how it is done in the u.s. mostly. they have to say this is what you are going to pay for for research. that is why we are getting the a la cart business. it is interesting. investor said i basically get charged for a biscuit now. it is really grim. he was being humorous that has each time he feels he's being charged. is anyone still doing it broadbrush, being more open armed about it, turning a blind eye to certain costs and therefore winning clients off the back of it, or is everyone following this nickel and dime procedure? >> the biggest south side firms
can offer services at a discount. they can also just say "premium service." youou fly business class, don't have to worry whether you are checking your bag. you can pay a business class fee and don't have to worry about what you are getting from research. if you have been trading relations, you probably get the business class premium service without paying too much for it. has benefited the biggest banks that can provide the research because they can subsidize it. already charged for it so now they can compete on more even footing. we saw this happen in the u.s. is the decade ago ge dealers getra hurt because they cannot afford
with the big banks do and are not as specialized as the small guys so they get squeezed in the middle and end up cutting more research staff and spending. taylor: thank you. we appreciate it. criticizing crypto. steven mnuchin becomes the latest official to voice concerns about facebook's libra cryptocurrency. this is bloomberg. ♪
executivesfacebook appear before the senate banking committee. this?me out ahead of >> everyone in washington right now is basically coming out to say facebook has a lot of explaining to do in town. i think what the treasury secretary said is not remarkable in itself. as you mentioned, president trump said similar things last week. what is remarkable is this is consistent day by day with people expressing skepticism in washington. there are a lot of questions lawmakers, policymakers, treasury secretary still have. facebook has not to explain how they will pull it off. it could be a massive change to help people around the world use money if they were able to make this happen.
taylor: how much more of a headwind is it today? facebook new they had an uphill battle trying to pitch this. did this create new headwinds they may not have been expecting? >> i don't think substantively secretary mnuchin said anything that different from what we heard last week from the president. however, as we know, the president will sometimes tweet things and then they go away. the treasury secretary holding a press conference today, ostensibly to focus on this even though it went into a number of other topics, shows the administration is taking this seriously. for facebook, it is not a great sign. they obviously have a lot of work to do convincing capitol hill and the trump administration this is a good idea. romaine: there is some concerned there is not a clear authority on the administrative side
dramatically what facebook is trying to do and would require some action by congress. >> i think that is totally right. for the last two years as we saw bitcoin shoot up to astronomical levels and then back down and back up again, agencies in washington have been trying to figure out how to regulate this. no one agency has clear authority. what we heard from the treasury secretary is a unit of treasury that looks at anti-money laundering and financial crimes will be watching closely people who might be using something like libra. there is not one agency in the united states in charge of looking at cryptocurrencies. and no one has said this is a currency, security, or what it actually is. romaine: that is ben bain reporting from washington. thank you very much. we are going to turn to the news on broadcom and symantec halting discussions on a proposed
merger. here to talk more about this, we are joined by a senior analyst for semiconductors and tech hardware at "bloomberg intelligence." this did not come as a complete shock. do we have any sense as to whether these companies can get a deal done or is broadband -- broadcom moving on? >> there are pros and cons for both sides. the fact they have found a software asset with $5 billion in revenue that they can extract a lot of synergies from is a positive for broadcom. at the same time, there seems to be some hiccup on price. the other company currently does not have a ceo or cfo and has had accounting-related investigations. there is no revenue growth in the market it is participating in.
in a lot of ways, i think symantec needs this deal more than broadcom because broadcom has potentially other options. symantec could also go private as others have. there are pros and cons for both parties. i think at the margin, broadcom could potentially benefit because it has other options. taylor: talk about some of the other options. we look at the failed takeover of qualcomm and the symantec deal that does not go through. where does broadcom go next? >> that is a good question. predecessor of broadcom bought broadcom and kept the ticker and demonstrated it could b to large semiconductor deals. the second was broadcom buying brocade.
qualcomm was a misstep in that they could not get the deal done. they demonstrated they can buy a software asset and integrate it well. symantec is part of that. if you look at other deals in the space, nuance has been talked about. given the size and complexity, vmware could be interesting, very large. broadcom would have to get to continue to deal. there are options for broadcom. it is clearly a roll up story and needs acquisitions to further its story. taylor: a story we will be following. thank you. doubi news says h.b. in -- said they plan to move some
production to avoid tariffs. he did tell us flexibility in the supply chain is helping the company navigate the dynamics. take a listen. >> we have a supply chain that has flexibility globally. we have 25 manufacturing the sotheby's across the globe. -- manufacturing facilities across the globe. i think we have done a nice job balancing the tariff dynamics and we will continue to work our way through it. hopefully the government's will come to an appropriate agreement at the right time. >> what does that mean in terms of adjusting your supply chains? you talked about 25 manufacturing sites when will you have to adjust prices? have you done so already? >> great question. there have been three tariff lists we have been able to navigate so far.
we have been able to mitigate the impact through shifts in the supply chain and working with our supply base. we have adjusted certain prices on a minority of products as a result of our inability to mitigate it. while we have done some price we have been able to offset the impacts to date. >> have you detected any change in sentiment towards american products and companies such as dell in china? >> we have certainly been worried about that. we really have not seen an impact to our domestic china business. we have quite a large domestic business in china, it is our second largest market. it has shown good growth over the years. we have been in china over 20 years. we are hopeful the tensions will
reside and allow companies like ours to continue to work in the respective markets. to date, we have not seen an impact to our overall business. >> you are seeing some impacts from the cycle itself. in talked about softness some chinese markets. how is dell planning to navigate that? >> it is a great question. we are coming off an extraordinarily strong fiscal 19 in terms of technology investment and spend. we are in a long-term technology investment cycle. we have seen some softness in parts of the globe on servers as we moved into this year. is wee are driving now built the company to grow under various market circumstances. we are focused on taking share whatrowing revenue despite
the local circumstances might be. right now, our focus is to drive growth where we can, make sure we are bouncing growth and profitability -- balancing growth and profitability and delivering the right results for investors. romaine: that was the cfo of dell, tom sweet. let's have a quick check of the business flash headlines. gilead boosting at stake in galapagos. it will pay $5.1 billion to increase research into diseases. that raises the stake in galapagos to 22%. gilead has been hurt by increased competition for drugs. the security and exchange commission was to make sure -- will place an unusual ban on the wagering of his own money separate from investor funds. it was this kind of prop trading that helped sink his former
firm 11 years ago. foron tapping kobe bryant amazon prime day. the big names are designed to maintain buzz around prime day which faces competition from walmart and target. i found it fascinating how they pulled out all the stops. they had a concert they broadcast with taylor swift, your doppelgänger. g, i have never heard of. it is interesting how amazon has made this an important day for that alls at the start these other companies have tried to piggyback on that has pushed them to move the ball further. caroline: i don't know that they had a celebrity store. i did not know that.
you had serena williams with tennis products, other notable names. this is a big give it -- pivot bezos.f basis -- jeff taylor: you could say they need to bring in celebrities to grow business. is wonder if some of this they start to get nervous and want to drum up some business. shoppers are snatching of potato chips, toilet paper, and other nonperishables. pushu need celebrities to potato chips and toilet paper? i don't need a celebrity to buy it. caroline: coming up, the foxconn founder is out. the presidential election in taiwan is starting to tighten. this is bloomberg. ♪
romaine: taiwan's main opposition party now have a nominee to run for leader. it is not the billionaire foxconn founder. the main opposition party chose a maverick mayor in its best hope to returning to power in the january election. let's start with the idea he lost this nomination but could still run as an independent. do we have some sense he will do that? shery: that has been the speculation. he could still run as a third-party candidate. he has not denied that speculation. we know what shareholders would like. as soon as he lost the nomination, we saw them gain 1% at the close. asknow he has stepped down chairman of foxconn so there is
great uncertainty over what he could do next. his platform for the 2020 election has been let's profit from this trade war between china and the u.s. saying this is a technology trade war so it could mean china could be the supply chain in between. taylor: is he the best to take over the incumbent? shery: it is one of the closest races since taiwan has started to elect presidents in the early 1990's. he is the mayor of the southern port city of taiwan. he is a very interesting character. beijing as very pro opposed to the incumbent. he said the relationship was one of an arranged marriage but they are madly in love. we can sort of see what kind of
policies he would pursue if elected. what does that mean for the relationship between the u.s. and taiwan? are the big military deals in question? shery: we have seen an informal alliance between taiwan and the u.s. grow. sales ton of u.s. arms taiwan that the state department approved last week. obviously, china not happy about this. the foreign minister at one point said the u.s. is playing with fire. despite this, sources are telling us the sale of $2 billion of arms to taiwan could include tanks. caroline: fascinating. story you will continue to cover. she is on starting at 6:00 p.m. weisenthal has an important new addition to the family. over the weekend, he and his wife welcomed baby number two
coming in at eight pounds, nine ounces. all are doing very well. taylor: i get to hang out with you guys for a few weeks. we certainly miss joe. congratulations again. romaine: do you think he is already indoctrinating her with blockchain? taylor: they are on twitter for sure. caroline: don't miss this. j.p. morgan and goldman sachs report second-quarter earnings. taylor: i'm looking at economic data for retail sales for june come back at 8:30 a.m. eastern. romaine: facebook testifies on libra before the senate committee tomorrow. taylor: bloomberg technology is next in the u.s. romaine: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪ i don't know why i didn't get screened a long time ago.
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